Froma Harrop

Americans focused on inflation seem especially tuned into the price of gasoline. While inflation has been fading away, many prices remain higher than they were two years ago.

But not for gasoline. That’s getting cheaper.

The average price at the pump is now about $3.26, which is down $1.73 from the high in June 2022. MAGA will note that it was only $2 a gallon when Donald Trump was in office — and evidence of his economic genius. It was no such thing.

The price of gas fell so low because of the COVID lockdowns. Americans were not driving nearly as much, and therefore buying much less gas. When the demand for gasoline caved, so did gas prices.

On April 20, 2020, the price of benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude futures actually fell below $0 a barrel. That was a temporary situation but a shocking headline at the time, underscoring what a pandemic can do to gas prices.

Look, I want free gas, but its price is largely set by market forces. These are factors that influence the supply, demand and some other things. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was one reason gas prices spiked as they did in 2022.

As for me, the price of gasoline has become less concerning ever since I bought a hybrid car. It gives me almost 10 more miles on a gallon than I had before. And I have much company as Americans switch to electric vehicles, hybrids or the very popular plug-in hybrids.

This trend is leading to a new era that bodes well for the future cost of driving. Economists see American drivers reaching peak demand for gasoline. As evidence, average prices at the pump over the recent Labor Day weekend, a time of heavy driving, fell 13% from the year before.

Even in China, the second-largest gasoline market after the U.S., demand for gasoline is expected to fall next year, according to an International Energy Agency forecast. The big reason is the hot sales there of electrical vehicles, which have already passed those of traditional vehicles.

Meanwhile, oil executives, recalling their huge losses during the pandemic, are showing little interest in boosting output, according to Bloomberg News. Money that they might spend drilling is instead being pumped back as cash to shareholders.

Candidate Trump has dragged out the antique “drill, baby, drill” chant to suggest that if elected to a second term, he would spike oil production. It happens that America under Biden-Harris is producing more oil and gas than at any time in American history, which would include Trump’s term.

It’s Trump who might hike the price of gas. He wants to impose tariffs of up to 20% on all imported goods. That would include half or more of the crude that the U.S. imports. Who would bear that extra cost? Look in the mirror.

(Were Trump to impose those 20% tariffs on imports, as he promises, a lot of prices would rise — to use one of his favorite rhetorical devices — “like they never have before.” The tariffs would cost the typical American household over $2,600 a year, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics.)

By Election Day, 30 states could see gasoline costs under $3, according to an analysis by GasBuddy, an app that helps users find the lowest gas prices in their area. In other words, signs at gas stations would lists prices with 2 as the first numeral. The price might not be as low as in 2020, when the economy did a face-plant, but it should blink good news to those fixated on the cost of driving.

And that could be quite good news for Kamala Harris.

Froma Harrop can be reached at fharrop@gmail.com.