Rep. Jared Golden, left, and Republican challenger Austin Theriault in one of the most closely watched congressional races in the country. Andree Kehn/Sun Journal and Joe Phelan/Kennebec Journal file photos

In a closely watched congressional race that could have national implications, Republican challenger Austin Theriault has a slight advantage over incumbent U.S. Rep. Jared Golden, according to poll results released this week.

The survey of 812 likely voters by Portland-based Pan Atlantic Research shows that Theriault – a former state lawmaker and race car driver from Fort Kent – leads Golden 47% to 44%, with 9% undecided. The lead is within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.5%, which means the race is a toss-up.

Nevertheless, it suggests that Golden, who was first elected to Maine’s 2nd Congressional District in 2018, was narrowly reelected in 2020 and 2022, and has increasingly broken with Democrats on key votes, is fighting to keep his seat.

The poll was conducted Sept. 5-15 and was not commissioned or paid for by any entity.

In addition to the congressional race, voters were asked about their preference for president, two other congressional races and for the five statewide referendum questions. It’s the first public poll released with any data on the ballot questions.

Among those surveyed, 50% said they planned to vote for Vice President Kamala Harris and 41% said they would vote for former President Donald Trump.

Trump, however, leads 49% to 42% in the 2nd Congressional District, which is filled with rural towns that often lean conservative.

That’s significant because Maine is one of only two states (Nebraska is the other) that awards Electoral College votes based on congressional districts. Each of Maine’s two districts gets one electoral vote and the state’s overall winner gets two.

In both 2016 and 2020, Trump lost the 1st District and the state overall but managed to win the 2nd District and received one Electoral College vote. There is an outside chance this year that Maine’s 2nd District electoral vote could allow Trump to reach the 270 votes need to win.

U.S. Sen. Angus King, an independent and two-term incumbent, holds a commanding lead, 53% to 23%, over his main challenger, Republican Demi Kouzounas, former chair of the state party. Democrat David Costello and independent Jason Cherry also are in the race but are both polling below 10%.

In the 1st District congressional race, eight-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree is way ahead of Republican challenger Ronald Russell, 53% to 28%, which is not a surprise since Maine’s 1st District leans much more Democratic.

But the 2nd District is more evenly split, even though Golden is a Democrat.

That race is one of several being watched by national committees because control of the U.S. House is at stake, and it’s seen as a chance for Republicans to flip a seat held by a Democrat.

Theriault’s campaign has been touting the Pan Atlantic poll since its release Wednesday, but it’s still early to draw any conclusions. Theriault and Golden haven’t debated yet and even though the election is less than two months away, not everyone has been tuning in closely.

As for the five referendum questions, the poll suggests there is varying level of support for each.

Question 5 – the flag referendum – appears to be the biggest unknown. Among those surveyed, 40% support changing Maine’s official flag to the pine tree and star design, and 40% planned to vote no. The rest were undecided.

Questions 2-4, the three bond proposals, have leads of at least 20 percentage points among those polled.

Support for Question 1, which would limit contributions to certain political action committees in Maine, was supported by 69% of those polled, compared to just 15% who opposed.

The Pan Atlantic poll is noteworthy if for no other reason than there haven’t been many polls conducted in Maine so far this election cycle.

The only other major survey that’s been released was by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center last month. That showed Harris with a much larger lead in Maine – 55% to 38% – and even had her leading in the 2nd District by a 5-point margin. The 2nd District race was not included.