The balance of power in both chambers will determine the trajectory of Gov. Janet Mills’ final two years in office. Will Mills continue to have Democratic majorities in each chamber as she has for six years since taking office? Or will she have to contend with a Republican majority in one or both chambers? Robert F. Bukaty/Associted Press

Control of the state Legislature will come down to only a handful of seats in the Senate and fewer than a dozen in the House of Representatives – margins that are well within the number of seats that have historically flipped from one election to the next.

The balance of power in either chamber will determine the trajectory of Gov. Janet Mills’ final two years in office. Will Mills continue to have Democratic majorities in each chamber as she has for six years since taking office? Or will she have to contend with a Republican majority in one or both chambers?

Democrats withstood what was expected to be a Republican wave two years ago. And they have been able to pass major legislation without Republican support.

But Republicans continue to be within striking distance of securing at least one legislative chamber after the votes are counted on Tuesday.

Each party has four Senate seats without an incumbent running to defend them. But in the House, 21 of the 35 open seats are now held by Democrats, creating an opening for Republicans.

Republicans need to pick up five seats to get a majority in the Senate and nine seats to control the House. If they flip one chamber, Augusta’s power balance will completely upend.

An election analysis from the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics concluded that the Maine House is one of the 13 most competitive in the country.

However, the Maine Senate is generally considered the most volatile chamber because its majority has changed hands four times since 2009.

And $3.15 million of the $5.4 million spent by outside groups on legislative races through October has focused on Senate campaigns.

Republicans have only had full control of state government once since 1990. Anti-government sentiment fueled by the Tea Party movement in 2010 allowed a brash mayor from Waterville, Paul LePage, to win the Blaine House and swept Republicans into power in both legislative chambers.

That flip came after eight years of Democratic control of state government, led by Gov. John Baldacci.

A poll released that fall revealed that 62% of respondents believed the state was headed in the wrong direction. Republicans flipped five seats in the Senate and 24 seats in the House.

Voter dissatisfaction doesn’t appear to be as high now as it was back then, suggesting that Republicans shouldn’t expect another Tea Party wave.

But there are signs that Republicans are positioned to gain seats in both chambers. And potential majorities are not out of reach, based on previous election swings.

A recent poll from Digital Research of Portland showed that 37% of respondents think the state is on the wrong track – a much lower percentage than those in 2010. But that level of dissatisfaction is similar to other years in which voters changed the balance of power in a legislative chamber.

After LePage and Republicans took control of state government and adopted tax cuts and reduced revenue sharing to municipalities, some 40% of voters said they were dissatisfied with the state’s direction and returned Democrats to power in both chambers. That year, Republicans lost 20 seats, with 17 seats going to Democrats and three to independents.

In 2014, voters again punished the party in power, when dissatisfaction rang in at 42%. Republicans picked up five seats to regain control over the Senate. They also picked up 10 seats in the House, but Democrats retained control.

Republicans maintained control of the Senate for four years, from 2014 through 2018. Democrats won it back in 2018, the same year that Mills was elected governor after LePage was termed out. That year, Democrats picked up four seats in the Senate and 12 in the House.

Little changed in the last two legislative elections. Democrats added one seat to their Senate majority in 2020 and nothing changed after the 2022 cycle. House Democrats lost nine seats in 2020 but earned only two back in 2022.

The 2018 election and the past six years of Democratic control of the State House and Blaine House resulted in a reversal of spending and service cuts under LePage, increased funding for public education and health care, expanded access to abortion services and the passage of several gun safety measures, including a three-day waiting period of firearm purchases.

Tuesday’s election, and the results in just a handful of races around the state, will determine if that six-year run is about to end.