Leaders in Maine’s tourism industry say they aren’t overly worried about a 9% drop in summer visitors this year, but they’re watching the numbers closely to see what the future holds in a post-pandemic world.

“It was sort of expected that there would be some return to normalization after the pandemic years where we had really robust growth,” said Patrick Woodcock, president and CEO of the Maine State Chamber of Commerce. “I think we have to watch these numbers to see if it augurs something in the future that becomes a concerning trend line.”

A total of 7.8 million tourists visited Maine this summer, a 9% drop from the summer of 2023. And the number of days visitors stayed in Maine fell 15%, according to a report released last week by the Maine Office of Tourism.

Visitor numbers have been declining since 2021, while the overall number of days spent here by tourists had been increasing until the drop this year. Direct spending by visitors this summer was relatively flat after years of growth since 2021 – a banner year on the tail end of the pandemic.

It’s hard to say definitively how Maine is doing compared with pre-pandemic times because the state changed the way it collects data in 2020, but those in the industry say it’s still trying to adjust to shifting travel patterns brought about by the pandemic as well as recent economic challenges. Year-round, the number of visitors remains below 2019 levels, although tourist spending is up even after adjustments for inflation, according to state data.

Leaders in Maine’s tourism industry and local businesses mostly said they had a decent summer this year, with some exceptions. And after a tourism boom toward the end of the pandemic, some said declines were to be expected. Still, this year’s drop in visitors is prompting them to think about how they will try to ensure tourists keep coming.

“I wouldn’t say I’m worried, but we are monitoring things really closely,” said Carolann Ouellette, director of tourism, film and outdoor recreation at the Office of Tourism.

“It’s important for the industry to make sure that growth is happening across the year. It’s something where we will be watching the trends and looking at the numbers, and using that to inform our marketing strategies and campaigns.”

PANDEMIC BUST AND BOOM

Tourism is one of Maine’s marquee industries, bringing in more than $9 billion in direct spending last year and supporting about 131,000 jobs throughout the state of 1.3 million people, according to the Office of Tourism.

Like other places around the country, the pandemic took a toll here, leading to travel restrictions, causing restaurants to limit their hours or close altogether and making people wary of public places and large crowds.

But the pandemic also prompted a tourism boom in Maine in 2021, when some travel restrictions and precautions were lifted but international travel was still limited. Acadia National Park saw a record 4 million visitors that year due to increased demand from people eager to go places within driving distance because there were still restrictions and precautions in place for international and air travel.

“I think people changed their travel patterns pretty dramatically after the pandemic,” Ouellette said. “I think we saw really good gains early on because of pent-up demand.”

Maine’s core market of visitors, which is primarily made up of people from other East Coast states, was cut off from or disinclined to travel internationally during the later part of the pandemic, which drove tourists to the state as a safe and accessible alternative, Ouellette said.

Sean Nickless, manager of the Crest Motel in Old Orchard Beach, said 2022 was the best year for the 31-room motel in recent memory. “After COVID there was a lot of pent-up demand and we saw a lot of people from a closer radius because people weren’t flying after COVID,” Nickless said.

This year was on par with 2023, Nickless said.

“It’s not bad, but you do always want to see a little growth,” he said. “It did seem to me that it wasn’t as busy in town and there weren’t as many ‘no vacancy’ signs throughout the summer. July and August, there are always people around and things happening, but I feel like in recent memory, 2022 was kind of the busiest benchmark for us.”

Old Orchard Beach seems to be returning to pre-pandemic levels of tourism, said Kim Howard, executive director of the Old Orchard Beach Chamber of Commerce.

“It was a bit of a roller coaster coming out of COVID because everyone was happy (to be able to travel) and we saw new visitors in 2021 because there wasn’t a lot of international travel,” Howard said. “People from New York who might have gone to Europe for the summer were instead coming to Maine and I think we made some new fans off of that.”

“I think what happened this summer was kind of a leveling off and trying to figure out where we are,” she said.

HOW DO NUMBERS COMPARE?

It’s hard to know exactly how this year’s statewide number of visitors compares with pre-pandemic years because the Office of Tourism switched vendors for its visitor tracking reports in 2020 and the data gathered since then has been based on different metrics.

However, the new vendor did calculate 2019 numbers using its new metrics and found the state saw 16.5 million visitors in 2019. After dropping to 12 million in 2020, year-round visitors totaled between 15.3 million and 15.6 million each year from 2021 to 2023.

That indicates that the state hasn’t fully bounced back to pre-pandemic numbers of tourists, but there have been increases in year-round spending by those tourists. The state also has recorded visitor growth in the fall and winter seasons, even as numbers dropped during the summers, Ouellette said.

Direct spending by visitors totaled $6.5 billion in 2019 – a record at the time – and climbed to $9 billion in 2023. After adjusting for inflation, the $9 billion spent in 2023 represents an increase of about $1.5 billion from 2019 spending levels.

Direct spending was basically flat this summer, having experienced a 0.4% decline from summer 2023 to $5.2 billion.

The fact that spending held steady given the decline in visitor numbers and days spent is a positive sign, Ouellette said.

“Visitor satisfaction continues to increase and people have stated they are going to book another trip and visit again and recommend a trip to their friends,” Ouellette said. “We’re seeing all those metrics continue to increase, so there are some nice nuggets of good news in all this as well.”

The number of days spent by visitors in Maine declined this summer from 42.4 million last year to 35.8 million.

The report states that the decline in visitors was partly because there are fewer available units for people to stay in, although it does not include any data to support the theory. Ouellette said she couldn’t say for sure if Maine’s housing crisis or restrictions on short-term rental units such as Airbnbs are impacting tourism.

“It’s a really interesting question,” Ouellette said. “What is the inventory? That’s something we don’t capture. And many hoteliers and resorts are offering workforce housing. Is that minimizing inventory for them on-site?”

The increased popularity of remote work may also be playing into declines in visitors during the summer season, with more people having greater flexibility to travel year-round now.

“From what we’re hearing, fall is looking incredibly strong, and some of that is just a shift in how and when people are traveling,” Ouellette said.

ECONOMY ALSO A FACTOR THIS YEAR

Inflation and worries about the economy also likely factored into this summer’s tourism numbers, and not just in Maine.

The number of Americans expected to travel and stay in paid lodging this summer was expected to decline amid concerns about high prices, leaving higher-income earners to make up a larger share of the traveling public. Families who were planning to travel were expected to take fewer and shorter trips.

Kenny Cianchette, founder and owner of Erik’s Church, a restaurant and live music venue near the Sebago Lakes Region in Windham, noticed a downturn in guests and sales this summer. He said there seemed to be fewer people staying at Airbnbs and those who did weren’t spending as much money.

“They would basically go to the stores and get their own beer and wine and grill at the house,” Cianchette said. “The weather was comparable to two years ago, and two years ago I think was one of our best summers ever for sales. The weather wasn’t really a factor this year. It was more the economic conditions and people wanting to get away but not having the money to go out every night.”

At the Crest Motel, Nickless said he heard many Canadian visitors lamenting a poor exchange rate and the cost of their vacation this year. And even in his own family, he said there was debate about whether they should travel.

“We talked about still wanting to get in a vacation but maybe not for as far or as long,” he said. “So I definitely think (inflation and the economy) played a part in it.”

Woodcock, from the state chamber of commerce, also noted that consumers have pulled back on discretionary spending this year. “We’ve been talking to our members and all the businesses have been saying this wasn’t a bad season, but it wasn’t at the levels they’d seen in 2022 and 2023,” he said.

And Cianchette said he believes anxiety about the election might have also kept some people home this summer. “The fact the election is over is a good thing because I think it gives people confidence in what the trajectory is,” he said. “Some of that anxiety has subsided. Traditionally, regardless of who becomes president or not, that’s something that we usually see in the industry in an election year.”

Johnny DiMillo, co-owner of DiMillo’s On The Water in the heart of Portland’s tourism district, said the restaurant had a good season this summer and was close to flat in terms of sales and numbers of visitors compared with last year.

“We’re happy about that. I feel pretty fortunate, especially considering the climate out there where a lot of friends of ours are shuttering,” DiMillo said, referring to a recent spate of restaurant closures in the Portland area.

While a dip in tourism may have played a part in some of those closures, DiMillo said there are also other factors like the increased costs of doing business and trouble finding enough staff.

At his own restaurant, he said they still don’t have the same number of dining room and lounge tables as pre-pandemic times. They scaled back for social distancing and still haven’t replaced some tables because they don’t have enough kitchen staff, he said.

“It seems like in the last two years everybody has gotten back to a normal life and is traveling and going out, but it’s the economy and the staffing that are really holding us back from increasing our overall sales,” DiMillo said.

At Chaval, in Portland’s West End, chef and co-owner Damian Sansonetti said that while summer is always busier than other times of the year, he has noticed a dip in customer volume the last few years. “This summer was good, but it wasn’t bonkers,” he said.

The challenge for many restaurants lately is that even if they are seeing more customers, the cost of supplies and labor is so high that they don’t see much more return. “If the volume is down even a little bit across the state, at the end of the day, the take-home is even less because of inflation,” Sansonetti said. “So you’re working harder to get a smaller net at the end of the day.”

‘WE CAN’T TAKE IT FOR GRANTED’

Woodcock said he expected this year’s tourism numbers might not match last year’s, and he has concerns about what that might mean for tax revenues in the state budget, especially if the trend continues.

“We have to recognize the tourism industry is hugely important for the state’s budget and for our business community, so we can’t take it for granted,” Woodcock said.

It’s still too early to say how Maine might finish the year in terms of number of visitors and how much money they’ll spend, but Ouellette said she has heard anecdotally that the fall was busy and that bookings are still coming in. The number of visitors last winter, from December 2023 to April 2024, was up 9%, driven at least in part by the total solar eclipse on April 8.

During the first week in December, the Office of Tourism will be traveling the state to gather stakeholder input on what will help the tourism economy grow and keep the industry sustainable.

“How can we continue to grow those shoulder seasons? That’s really important to the work we’re doing,” Ouellette said. “We also recognize we need to monitor summer very closely. We want to see growth in all seasons.”

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